Trade war scenario Potential trade war between USA and ChinaPotential trade war between USA and EUItaly’s entry into the 2019 recessionBREXIT The USA has artificially initiated growth and such growth is not sustainable. There is a constant danger of recession. Healthy growth requires orderly trade relations with the two largest partners, China and the EU. China is also slowing growth under the influence of sanctions imposed by the United States. Climate change is further affecting the economy, especially natural disasters that cause huge financial damage. Climate change and all the above circumstances also affect tourism. That is why we have a slow flow of tourist travel reservations at the moment. Croatia is not the only one affected by this problem, but the fact is that more expensive sales are more expensive. Competition takes advantage of this moment of economic weakness and redirects tourist flows through a policy of low prices. Former losers like Egypt and Turkey are back on the scene again.  THE PROBLEM OF ITALY ITB Berlin Convention 2019 – ITB Future Day – Prof. Dr. Roland Conrady, Scientific Director of the ITB Berlin Convention, Worms University of Applied Sciences; Stephen Kaufer, Co-Founder, President & CEO, TripAdvisor: “CEO Keynote Interview” (ltr) twenty years without GDP growthin terms of GDP, Italy is at the very bottom of the EU alongside Greecewith the cessation of growth, Italy lost much of its share of the international marketThe Italian government does not want to cooperate with other EU member statesPublic debt growth because there is no GDP growth and the public service does not meet its needs from higher taxes PREDICTIONS The results of the research show that since the second half of 2018, the growth of the economy of the entire EU zone has slowed down. After a long period of growth, this slowdown delays planned investments, “slows down” consumption and creates fear of a new “2009” year. The following events give an additional feeling of insecurity: This year, the ITB Congress is taking place in a new space, a specially built congress center with halls that can accommodate 800 participants. The Congress has 105 thematic events, while 65% of the keynote speakers are from the field of top management. The congress is attended by 28.000 participants, and the main titles of the lectures and panels are “Future day”, “Destination day”, “ITB mice forum”, “ITB business travel forum”, “ITB young professionals day”, “ITB deep dive sessions”, ” ITB is a travel world day ”. Climate change and the challenge of sustainabilityThe future of mobility and new transport solutionsOvertourism and management measuresNew luxury, intangibles BREXIT In the event of a trade war between the US and the EU, the US would lose that war because although they import more goods than they export to the EU, exports of US services to the EU are significantly higher and the overall foreign trade balance is in the US. If the USA introduces customs duties on the import of goods, the EU could introduce special taxes on services from the USA, and this would affect significant digital platforms, Internet services, and the digital industry that exports its services to the EU. The USA would get the “thick end” there, but the tourism sector would also be at a loss.  However, the downsides of the Italian economy are: Slowing economic growth and “leaning” towards recession The ups and downs of tourist demand occur as one of the first consequences of global economic trends, and these trends are again the result of the conduct of certain policies of the largest players in the global economy. Therefore, to understand the direction in which tourism is moving, we must first understand the economic circumstances. These circumstances are read at the very beginning of the new trend, and it started in the second half of 2018. Prof. Dr.Dr.hc Clemens Fuerst, Director of the IFO Institute for Economic Research, University of Munich presented the results of their research. Research is conducted constantly, continuously. Among other things, each month the IFO Institute processes 10.000 surveys completed by key people in the industry. From Berlin, from the ITB fair for HrTurizam.hr – Nedo Pinezić, www.nedopinezic.com The Italian economy is ten times stronger than the Greek one and has its advantages: Now, why do the British complicate things? Because of Northern Ireland. The protracted bloody war between Ireland and Northern Ireland and the United Kingdom, respectively, has come to an end largely thanks to the removal of the solid borders between Northern Ireland and Ireland. After BREXIT, the border must be re-established between Ireland – a member of the EU and Northern Ireland, ie Great Britain – a non-member of the EU. An intermediate solution by setting a sea border between Northern Ireland and the UK is not realistic and could cause new political problems. It is predicted that BREXIT without an agreement would surely lead the EU and the United Kingdom into recession. So there is hope that this will not happen. CONDITIONAL BOOM USA AND OTHER THREATS Tourism is a reflection, a reflex, of overall economic relations The solution for Italy is either an increase in taxes or an increase in GDP, ie economic reform and the launch of new export potentials. If this does not happen, and the only thing that can happen in the short term, the tax increase will not happen, Italy will “slip” into recession. If the crisis deepens, according to the Greek scenario, there is a danger of refinancing Italy’s 300 billion public debt every year. With China and the USA, things look quite the opposite. China has a large foreign trade surplus with the US so in the event of a trade war China would be at a big loss. Therefore, there is hope that there will be no war and that these tensions will end with negotiations that must lead to a balance of relations. Photo: ITB Berlin The main topics that this year’s congress deals with through numerous events are: employment has steadily increased over the past twenty yearsItaly has no foreign trade deficitIt is fiscally consolidated The main question with BREXIT is whether leaving the EU by the UK will happen without an agreement or by mutual consent. The deadline is approaching the end of March and can be extended until the end of June at the latest. If there is no agreement then there will be difficulties in regulating mutual relations. Tourism will feel new barriers in air transport and a new border regime. The IFO Institute predicts that the tourism model will change in the near future for all the above reasons. The growth of eco-tourism and local, regional travel is predicted. France is also approaching the area of ​​recession, and Germany has a big problem with the car industry. In the case of raising customs barriers for the import of European cars to the USA, this situation could worsen sharply. read more